< Omega Ω Block Weather >

Tropical Atlantic Quiet; For Now

2010-07-27T19:47:00.000-07:00

GFS has been, for several days, pretty active on its runs concerning possible tropical cyclone development, especially as August starts

Like many other recent operational GFS runs, the July 27th, 2010 18Z run, has about 3 systems all of Cape Verde origin. One of them, especially could end up being a problem to the eastern CONUS coast sometime around August 10th or so. Obviously, this is not anything concrete as it's still long range, and so far there's no support from other guidance, probably because only the GFS goes out more than 240 hours.

Starts here at hour 204 or so:

And then the last frame of the run:

Will continue to monitor the GFS and other guidance to see how all this evolves over the next week to two weeks, and will post here, updates and anything of important and relevance to the 2010 Atlantic tropical cyclone season.

Images posted above can be found on the NCEP Central Operations until the next 18Z GFS run.

January 17-18 2009 Clipper Snowfall Forecast Beta

2009-01-16T23:30:00.000-08:00

White Plains, NY (01/17/09) -

The maps refer to the next weather event to affect the forecast area (the Tri-state area and surrounding area). As with the last event, this one is also a clipper type storm and should produce all snow and have a similar QPF (moisture) profile.

Forecast Beta, means that the map is a preliminary map, expressing my preliminary ideas for the event. Later on today, most likely in the afternoon or early evening, the final map or what i call Forecast Omega, will be issued along with any possible Omega Block Weather headlines concerning advisories or watches/warnings.

Selected city Clipper Snowfall Forecast Beta:

Omega Block Winter Weather Advisory

2009-01-14T12:16:00.000-08:00

Omega Block Weather:

****Omega Block Weather has issued a winter weather advisory for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A potential snowstorm of 3-6 inches seems likely to affect the area starting late Wednesday and lasting into Noon Thursday. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions will be problematic.

Therefore, Omega Block Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the above mentioned counties and the NYC metro area.

Travel conditions will be impacted and delays will likely result. Please avoid being outside as dangerous windchill in the negative range and very cold temperatures will grip the region. Furthermore, if possible avoid driving as blowing snow will cause terrible driving conditions.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

Real Weather Solutions Winter Weather Advisory

2009-01-13T22:58:00.000-08:00

The following is a Winter Weather Advisory issued by R.W.S. at 3:35 PM EST 1/13/09

The following winter weather advisory is in effect from 1/15/09 12 AM est to 1/15/09 12 noon Est ..

The Winter Weather Advisory covers the following counties.
In PA...
Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton and Monroe.

In NJ
Morris, Sussex and Warren

An alberta clipper currently over the Dakotas will continue to drop to the south and east to central Missouri. At this point and time the clipper will move from west to east across southern ohio and track east from there to the south of the PA/MD border, tracking across Washington, DC, and moving east out to sea from there.
The snow will start to spread from west to east around midnight and should cover the entire region by 4 AM. There is not much qpf with this system. QPF ranges from .01 to the south to about .20 in the far NW suburbs. This will result in a 2-4 inch snowfall across Pa counties and 3-5 inches across the far NW Nj counties.

Remember that a winter weather advisory means that a light accumulation of snow/sleet or freezing rain is expected.
Also along with this winter weather advisory will be a potential for gusty NW winds after the storm ends. This will create blowing and drifting of the snowfall. Use caution when driving or venturing outdoors
Stay tuned for further winter weather updates

Real Weather Solutions Jan 15th Clipper Forecast Thoughts

2009-01-13T22:54:00.000-08:00

Alright..due to the color code being wrong on the previous map I have decided to redo the map with some changes as well...
Last night at 5 AM when i was posting and watching the 6z GFS i was becoming a bit concerned with the northward extent of the precipitation. The 06 Z GFS was actually further south then the 00z GFS. I thought to myself at that time that it was just the GFS. ECM was not quite as far south as that 06 Z GFS was. However..I kept it in the back of my mind. Because the 6 Z GFS essentially moved the low from west to east off the Delmarva and did not even really turn it to the NE.

Now the 12 Z ECM comes out with the exact same thinking.....

QPF is relatively the same as previous runs..just now with the further south track becoming more and more apparent this will shift the snowfalls northern extent southwards...

SO with those thoughts in mind ..this is my updated final map
As i mentioned last night this is going to not have alot of QPF to work with. At the most .25 would be the highest. I am using 20:1 ratios. This is going to be a very fluffy type snowfall. One that will blow around quite easily and one that will be hard to measure due to the blowing around factor..

I do not expect Blizzard conditions by any means...

Throw that word out the window.
I could see some whiteout conditions if it gets windy enough because any snowfall will blow around easily. With all that in mind that is my final map and truly enjoy this snowfall as it is the type one can truly enjoy!

January 15th, '09 Clipper Final Snowfall Forecast Map

2009-01-13T22:05:00.000-08:00

White Plains, NY (Jan. 14th. '09 - 1:22 AM):

Clipper moving from the Ohio valley to the east coast, will affect the area, by ejecting off the east coast via southern NJ-northern Delmarva during the late night hours of Wednesday the 14th, into the late morning hours of Thursday the 15th.

Moisture (QPF) associated with the clipper, ranges from 0.10 to 0.25, which due to high snow ratios as a result of very cold temperatures in the upper to lower 10's, will result in as much as 6 inches of snow from NE PA to N NJ on to NYC metro, SE NY and Long Island and then into RI, SE Mass and the Cape Code area. Areas to the north and south of the heavier axis of snow, will, possibly, pick up as much as 3 inches of snow.

Blustery conditions will exist, which could lead to the possibility of blizzard-like conditions. Winds could gust as high as 35 MPH and be sustained from 15 to 25 MPH during Thursday. As a result, dangerously cold windchill possibly below 1F and blowing snow may likely cause very problematic conditions for drivers and pedestrians. Make sure to bundle up in layers to be prepared for the harsh conditions that this weather event will bring.

Omega Block Weather will likely issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the forecast area, for as much as 6 inches of snow, any time between the next few hours and Wednesday afternoon. Please stay tuned for further updates.

Clipper To Bring Blizzard Conditions?

2009-01-12T21:08:00.000-08:00

White Plains, NY (01/13/09) -

Clipper moving into the western United States Tuesday (01/13/09), will move eastwards towards the northern Mid-Atlantic area, possibly bring a swath of 3-7 inches of snow towards the Tri-state area of NJ,NY and CT. by Thursday (01/15/09). If corrent guidance idea of track and pressure gradient is correct, blizzard conditions could develop for about 6 to 8 hours in and around the Tri-state area, including southeast NY and NYC metro.

Conditions would be pretty harsh with strong steady winds, snowfall, very cold temperatures and fridge windchill values.

This event will continued to be watched, as winter weather advisories and perhaps even blizzard watches may be needed come Wednesday.

Please refer to the snowfall map below for a Omega Block Weather preliminary look into the possibility for accumulating snow.

January 15-16 Alberta Clipper Preliminary Snowfall Map

2009-01-12T13:36:00.000-08:00

Nothing much to describe here. Event seems pretty solid so far for accumulationg snows due to high ratios.

00Z-12Z ECMWF and 12Z GEFS blend used for the map, for this event being 2-3 days.

Storm should track over DC, and therefore areas to the north get most of the QPF that the clipper lifts out of the waters of the Atlantic near the coast.

Winter Weather Advisories, may be needed for the areas in the 3-5 inch range. My blog will consider the possibility to issue one on Wednesday, if conditions continue more or less how they are now, for the Tri-state area (NE NJ, NYC metro and SE NY, and SW CT).

Omega Block Winter Storm Warning

2009-01-09T12:22:00.000-08:00

Omega Block Weather:

****Omega Block Weather has issued a winter sotrm warning for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A potential snowstorm of 6-10 inches is likely to affect the area starting late Friday and lasting into Sunday morning night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions will be problematic.

Latest model guidance, which include all guidance, show good consistency and agreement concerning the winter storm for the area this weekend, which now is likely. Therefore, Omega Block Weather has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the above mentioned counties and the NYC metro area. The metro area could see accumulations exceeding 6 inches, howeversome mixing issues with sleet is possible.

Travel conditions will be impacted, making it difficult and delays will likely result. Please avoid driving if possible.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event unfolds.

Jan 10-11, '09 Mid-Altantic/Northeast Snowstorm Forecast Map (Zoomed in & Simplified )

2009-01-09T11:41:00.000-08:00

General idea for the snowstorm has not changed much.

This is simply a more simplified version of the map issue earlier today. Also, it's zoomed into a more specific area of the region.

Omega Block Weather Winter Storm Watch

2009-01-08T23:58:00.000-08:00

Omega Block Weather:

****Omega Block Weather has issued a winter weather watch for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A pontential snowstorm of 6+ inches seems likely to affect the area starting late friday and lasting into sunday morning night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions will be problematic.

Latest model guidance, with exception to the ECMWF, which has been considered the outlier and not used into the blend by the HPC, show good consistency and agreement concerning the winter storm for the area this weekend, which now is likely. Therefore, Omega Block Weather has issued a Winter Storm Watch for hte above mentioned counties and the NYC metro area. The metro area could see accumulations exceeding 6 inches, however at this point and time, it's not set in stone. So, further info and analisys will be done over the next 12 hours or so. A Winter Storm Warning will most likely be issued by Omega Block Weather, sometime friday afternoon for the same aforementioned areas.

Travel conditions will be impacted and delays will likely result. Please avoid stay driving if possible.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

R.W.S Winter Storm Warning for January 10-11

2009-01-08T23:56:00.000-08:00

The following is a Winter Storm Warning Issued by R.W.S

The following Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the following Counties...
In PA..
Berks,Bucks,Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton and Philadelphia Counties. . As well as , Carbon Monroe, Pike counties, Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming and Wayne...
In NJ
Hunterdon, Passaic, Morris, Sussex, and Warren Counties

R.W.S has issued a WSW effective 1/10/09 1 AM est time to 1/11/09 1 AM EST

Significant snowstorm on the way for the above counties.

Omega Block January 10-11th 2009 Snowstorm Final Map

2009-01-08T23:06:00.000-08:00

Map based on all the southern solution based models at a 80% level; (GFS, NAM, UKMET and GGEM).

The ECM has been used at a 20% level, thus resulting in lesser amounts for southern PA and NJ, which also introduces sleet in the southern areas of the map, and some sleet in the immediate coasts of Long Island and the Cape Cod area.

NYC metro receives a bit of sleet due to its heat island effect and some of the ECM's influence. Immediate suburbs of NYC, see mostly snow with sleet mixing in at times for brief periods.

RWS Janurary 10-11 2009 Snowstorm Final Map

2009-01-08T22:57:00.000-08:00

Low pressure over Montana will continue to move to the ESE and merge with a low pressure that will develop over the TX/OK panhandle. This low pressure will then move ENE to Southern Indiana . From there this low pressure will move east across southern ohio and then across the Pa/MD border until it reaches the east coast. At this time it should cross across southern NJ as it makes the turn Northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.
This low pressure area will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With cold air at the surface and the S/W going to the south of the area a heavy swath of snow will fall to the north of the low pressure center. Temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s from North to south across the region.

RWS Special Weather Statement

2009-01-07T21:35:00.000-08:00

R.W.S. Special Weather Statement

Significant Snow Storm Possible

Timeframe 7 AM Saturday -7 AM Sunday...

Low pressure just to the North of the Pacific Northwest will move east south east at the same time southern stream energy will be forming on the Tx/oklahoma Panhandle. This southern stream energy will become the dominant player. This S/W will move on a ENE basis thru western Tennessee into Eastern KY and then Western VA. From here this S/W will move east off the coast around the Delmarva before moving ENE up the coast. The potential exists for a significant snowfall for MD, Southern PA, South Central PA into Central NJ and Northern New Jersey into NYC and Southern New England.
Please stay tuned for further updates!

Omega Block Wx Statement

2009-01-07T21:14:00.000-08:00

Omega Block Weather:

****Omega Block Weather has issued a special weather statement for the NYC metro area and its immediate counties in southeast New York State, which include, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties.****

A pontential snowstorm of 4+ inches seems likely to affect the area starting late friday and lasting into saturday night. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions would be problematic.

If model guidance consistancy continues through the next 24 hours, the special weather statement will be upgraded to a winter storm watch for the area.

Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.

January 10-11th Preliminary Snowfall Forecast Scenario

2009-01-07T21:07:00.000-08:00

00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend, for track and QPF was used for this preliminary forecast scenario map.

Due to the east to west nature of the track, highest QPF will be to the north of the system, so as the system exits the coast and starts tracking more NE, the area of highest QPF switches to the NW, hence the scenario i have, using the blend described above.