GFS has been, for several days, pretty active on its runs concerning possible tropical cyclone development, especially as August starts
Like many other recent operational GFS runs, the July 27th, 2010 18Z run, has about 3 systems all of Cape Verde origin. One of them, especially could end up being a problem to the eastern CONUS coast sometime around August 10th or so. Obviously, this is not anything concrete as it's still long range, and so far there's no support from other guidance, probably because only the GFS goes out more than 240 hours.
Starts here at hour 204 or so:
And then the last frame of the run:
Will continue to monitor the GFS and other guidance to see how all this evolves over the next week to two weeks, and will post here, updates and anything of important and relevance to the 2010 Atlantic tropical cyclone season.
Images posted above can be found on the NCEP Central Operations until the next 18Z GFS run.
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- OmegaBlock
- Weather lover, enthusiast and Accuweather forum SuperModerator.
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Labels
- 2010 Trop Cyclone season (1)
- Omega Block maps (3)
- Omega Block Weather Winter Storm Watches (1)
- Omega Block Winter Storm Warnings (1)
- Omega Block Winter Weather Advisories (1)
- Preliminary snowfall maps (2)
- RWS maps (2)
- RWS special weather statements (1)
- RWS Winter Storm Warnings (1)
- RWS Winter Weather Advisories (1)
- Special wx statement (1)
- storm text (1)
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Tropical Atlantic Quiet; For Now
Posted by OmegaBlock at 7:47 PM 0 comments
Labels: 2010 Trop Cyclone season
Friday, January 16, 2009
January 17-18 2009 Clipper Snowfall Forecast Beta
White Plains, NY (01/17/09) -
The maps refer to the next weather event to affect the forecast area (the Tri-state area and surrounding area). As with the last event, this one is also a clipper type storm and should produce all snow and have a similar QPF (moisture) profile.
Forecast Beta, means that the map is a preliminary map, expressing my preliminary ideas for the event. Later on today, most likely in the afternoon or early evening, the final map or what i call Forecast Omega, will be issued along with any possible Omega Block Weather headlines concerning advisories or watches/warnings.
Selected city Clipper Snowfall Forecast Beta:
Posted by OmegaBlock at 11:30 PM 0 comments
Labels: Preliminary snowfall maps
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Omega Block Winter Weather Advisory
Omega Block Weather:
A potential snowstorm of 3-6 inches seems likely to affect the area starting late Wednesday and lasting into Noon Thursday. Plowable snowfall is likely and travel conditions will be problematic.
Therefore, Omega Block Weather has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the above mentioned counties and the NYC metro area.
Travel conditions will be impacted and delays will likely result. Please avoid being outside as dangerous windchill in the negative range and very cold temperatures will grip the region. Furthermore, if possible avoid driving as blowing snow will cause terrible driving conditions.
Please stay tuned for further updates, as this potential winter weather event nears.
Posted by OmegaBlock at 12:16 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Real Weather Solutions Winter Weather Advisory
The following is a Winter Weather Advisory issued by R.W.S. at 3:35 PM EST 1/13/09
The following winter weather advisory is in effect from 1/15/09 12 AM est to 1/15/09 12 noon Est ..
The Winter Weather Advisory covers the following counties.
In PA...
Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton and Monroe.
In NJ
Morris, Sussex and Warren
An alberta clipper currently over the Dakotas will continue to drop to the south and east to central Missouri. At this point and time the clipper will move from west to east across southern ohio and track east from there to the south of the PA/MD border, tracking across Washington, DC, and moving east out to sea from there.
The snow will start to spread from west to east around midnight and should cover the entire region by 4 AM. There is not much qpf with this system. QPF ranges from .01 to the south to about .20 in the far NW suburbs. This will result in a 2-4 inch snowfall across Pa counties and 3-5 inches across the far NW Nj counties.
Remember that a winter weather advisory means that a light accumulation of snow/sleet or freezing rain is expected.
Also along with this winter weather advisory will be a potential for gusty NW winds after the storm ends. This will create blowing and drifting of the snowfall. Use caution when driving or venturing outdoors
Stay tuned for further winter weather updates
Posted by OmegaBlock at 10:58 PM 0 comments
Labels: RWS Winter Weather Advisories
Real Weather Solutions Jan 15th Clipper Forecast Thoughts
Alright..due to the color code being wrong on the previous map I have decided to redo the map with some changes as well...
Last night at 5 AM when i was posting and watching the 6z GFS i was becoming a bit concerned with the northward extent of the precipitation. The 06 Z GFS was actually further south then the 00z GFS. I thought to myself at that time that it was just the GFS. ECM was not quite as far south as that 06 Z GFS was. However..I kept it in the back of my mind. Because the 6 Z GFS essentially moved the low from west to east off the Delmarva and did not even really turn it to the NE.
Now the 12 Z ECM comes out with the exact same thinking.....
QPF is relatively the same as previous runs..just now with the further south track becoming more and more apparent this will shift the snowfalls northern extent southwards...
SO with those thoughts in mind ..this is my updated final map
As i mentioned last night this is going to not have alot of QPF to work with. At the most .25 would be the highest. I am using 20:1 ratios. This is going to be a very fluffy type snowfall. One that will blow around quite easily and one that will be hard to measure due to the blowing around factor..
I do not expect Blizzard conditions by any means...
Throw that word out the window.
I could see some whiteout conditions if it gets windy enough because any snowfall will blow around easily. With all that in mind that is my final map and truly enjoy this snowfall as it is the type one can truly enjoy!
Posted by OmegaBlock at 10:54 PM 0 comments
Labels: RWS maps
January 15th, '09 Clipper Final Snowfall Forecast Map
Moisture (QPF) associated with the clipper, ranges from 0.10 to 0.25, which due to high snow ratios as a result of very cold temperatures in the upper to lower 10's, will result in as much as 6 inches of snow from NE PA to N NJ on to NYC metro, SE NY and Long Island and then into RI, SE Mass and the Cape Code area. Areas to the north and south of the heavier axis of snow, will, possibly, pick up as much as 3 inches of snow.
Blustery conditions will exist, which could lead to the possibility of blizzard-like conditions. Winds could gust as high as 35 MPH and be sustained from 15 to 25 MPH during Thursday. As a result, dangerously cold windchill possibly below 1F and blowing snow may likely cause very problematic conditions for drivers and pedestrians. Make sure to bundle up in layers to be prepared for the harsh conditions that this weather event will bring.
Omega Block Weather will likely issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the forecast area, for as much as 6 inches of snow, any time between the next few hours and Wednesday afternoon. Please stay tuned for further updates.
Posted by OmegaBlock at 10:05 PM 0 comments
Labels: Omega Block maps
Monday, January 12, 2009
Clipper To Bring Blizzard Conditions?
White Plains, NY (01/13/09) -
Clipper moving into the western United States Tuesday (01/13/09), will move eastwards towards the northern Mid-Atlantic area, possibly bring a swath of 3-7 inches of snow towards the Tri-state area of NJ,NY and CT. by Thursday (01/15/09). If corrent guidance idea of track and pressure gradient is correct, blizzard conditions could develop for about 6 to 8 hours in and around the Tri-state area, including southeast NY and NYC metro.
Conditions would be pretty harsh with strong steady winds, snowfall, very cold temperatures and fridge windchill values.
This event will continued to be watched, as winter weather advisories and perhaps even blizzard watches may be needed come Wednesday.
Posted by OmegaBlock at 9:08 PM 0 comments
Labels: storm text